CRISISINSIGHT: GLOBAL RISK ANALYSIS
- March 27, 2023
- Posted by: Innovative Aid Strategy & Consulting
- Categories: Funding trends, Humanitarian, International, International Development
From ACAPS, published on March 2023
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INTRODUCTION
ACAPS analysts conduct the daily monitoring and independent analysis of more than 150 countries, including regular risk analysis.ACAPS’ Global Risk Analysis outlines a number of key contexts where new crises may emerge or where a particular situation may notably deteriorate within the next six months, causing a spike in humanitarian needs.
The risks included in this report were based on the identification of:
• ‘Newly emerging crises’ (new risks) following new events or factors (triggers) that may emerge over the coming six months. Such triggers would point towards a hazard materialising, which would result in new or more severe humanitarian needs in a monitored context.
• Potential ‘rapid and marked deterioration’ in an existing crisis include existing crises that, because of a combination of deteriorating trends and new events or pre-existing factors, may significantly deteriorate in the next six months, leading to worse humanitarian outcomes.
We run trend analysis to identify such risks. However, a steadily deteriorating humanitarian situation that continues at the same rate is considered a trend instead of a risk. This report does not include trends.
ACAPS identifies risks at the regional, country, or subnational level:
ACAPS has identified risks over the next six months in the following 10 locations to alert humanitarian decision makers and responders on the possible emergence of new crises or significant deteriorations of existing humanitarian crises. The aim is to support preparedness for a timely and adequate response.
ACAPS METHODOLOGY AND PROCESS
The ACAPS risk methodology defines risk as the probability of a hazard or multiple hazards materialising, combined with the estimated impact of such hazards. The associated risk level (low, medium, or high) rises with the hazard’s probability of occurring and the severity of its expected impact.
Impact is the predicted overall humanitarian consequence of a hazard materialising. It can be an increase in the number of people needing assistance, the severity of their needs, or both. The impact is based on the assessment of different components:
• exposure to the hazard (how many people are likely to be affected?)
• the intensity of the hazard (how will the hazard affect people?)
• the population’s vulnerability (to shocks)
• and coping capacity (to deteriorating living and humanitarian conditions).
ACAPS classifies impact on a five-point scale: very low, low, moderate, significant, or major.
Probability is the chance of a hazard materialising. ACAPS assesses probability on a five-point scale: very low, low, medium, high, or very high.
Probability and impact levels are not mathematically calculated but assigned through expert judgement based on context knowledge.
The overall risk level is the combination of the two, meaning it is also assigned through expert judgement.
For more information, please visit acaps.org