Information warfare – with an AI twist – will put civilians at increasing risk

Misinformation and disinformation have always factored into conflicts and crises. But today’s tech, including easily accessible and rapidly evolving artificial intelligence – think image creators like Midjourney and insta-text tools like ChatGPT – multiplies the risks. Generative AI may be the equivalent of the next, big, mass-producible weapon, some analysts warn. Look at Gaza or Ukraine for snapshots of how information is weaponised. Examples of real-world harms are mounting elsewhere. In Sudan, both the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have waged an information war on social media – endangering civilians fleeing conflict with false information about safe areas. Smartphone surveillance has also targeted asylum seekers; it’s pushed by countries seeking to limit their numbers. Tigrayan massacre survivors say Facebook algorithms amplified hate and led to killings in Ethiopia. Myanmar’s Rohingya know the consequences: Hate speech demonised an entire community, adding fuel to their genocide. Former tech CEOs are pushing for guardrails. Governments from the US to the EU are rushing to try and regulate AI. But change may happen more organically. Citizen sleuths and professional fact-checkers are debunking disinformation from Ukraine to Indonesia, and the skills they employ can be fostered.

Water scarcity and drought will spur displacement

The Middle East and North Africa may be considered the worst-affected region, but water scarcity has become a global scourge, with droughts affecting everywhere from Peru to Kenya, from Syria to Afghanistan, from Honduras to Somalia. These events are only expected to proliferate as climate change worsens, with millions of people in fast-drying settings being pushed to cities for jobs that don’t exist. Children are particularly vulnerable to water scarcity, which is one of the main factors in preventable infant deaths. UNICEF says 739 million children – one in three globally – live in areas of high or very high water scarcity. Save the Children recently pointed out how water shortages linked to climate change increased the risks for children in Gaza. Conflict greatly worsens the situation, as in Yemen, where warring parties have both weaponised water and extorted citizens desperate for it. A lack of water can also cause crises in peaceful countries. A first-ever UN conference in 2023 dedicated to water security was a start to addressing the issue. But attendees left underwhelmed by the lack of concrete action and pondering why the next one won’t be until 2028.